Findings & Forecasts 10/10/2012

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Pol­i­tics

I have written in the past that there were signs of the global elite dumping Obama much like Jimmy Carter was dumped in 1979 after a single Pres­i­den­tial term. In spite of that and in light of O’s strong elec­toral vote showing, it seemed like he would sail to vic­tory on November 6, with ease.

It’s time to revisit the first sce­nario again. After a lop­sided Pres­i­den­tial debate against Romney, it appeared that the estab­lish­ment pulled the rug out from under Obama, and then threw him under the bus. Sev­eral promi­nent Democ­rats have turned against him. Some of the lib­eral media are crit­i­cizing him.

Nev­er­the­less, as of today, Huff­in­gton Post elec­toral tracking shows Obama ahead with 263 elec­toral votes, com­pared to Romney’s 206. The winner must cap­ture at least 270 elec­toral votes. Electoral-Vote.com shows Obama with 317 and Romney with 206. Either way, Obama is still ahead with a con­sid­er­able margin.

There are more debates ahead, but don’t expect Obama and Biden to make the same mis­takes again. They may make dif­ferent mis­takes, but they are far from being overwhelmed.

Mean­while, take note of some of the Tri­lat­eral Com­mis­sion gad­flies in and around the Romney campaign:

Robert Zoel­lick, former member of TC and Pres­i­dent of the World Bank

Robert D. Black­will, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. For­eign Policy, Council on For­eign Rela­tions, Wash­ington; former Deputy Assis­tant to Pres­i­dent George W. Bush and Deputy National Secu­rity Advisor for Strategic Plan­ning; former Ambas­sador to India

Paula J. Dobri­ansky, Dis­tin­guished National Secu­rity Chair at the U.S. Naval Academy; Adjunct Senior
Fellow, Belfer Center for Sci­ence and Inter­na­tional Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Gov­ern­ment,
Har­vard Uni­ver­sity; former U.S. Under Sec­re­tary of State for Democ­racy and Global Affairs

Con­doleezza Rice, Pro­fessor of Polit­ical Sci­ence, Stan­ford Uni­ver­sity, and Thomas and Bar­bara
Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public Policy, Hoover Insti­tu­tion, Palo Alto; former U. S. Sec­re­tary of
State; former National Secu­rity Advisor to Pres­i­dent George W. Bush

Eliot Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Pro­fessor of Strategic Studies, Director of Strategic Studies Pro­gram, and Director of Philip Mer­rill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced Inter­na­tional Studies, The Johns Hop­kins Uni­ver­sity, Wash­ington; former Coun­selor to the U.S. Sec­re­tary of State

Susan Schwab, Pro­fessor of Public Policy, Uni­ver­sity of Mary­land, Col­lege Park, and Strategic
Advisor, Mayer Brown, LLP; former U.S. Trade Representative

Henry A. Kissinger, Chairman, Kissinger Asso­ciates, Inc., New York; former U.S. Sec­re­tary of State;
former U.S. Assis­tant to the Pres­i­dent for National Secu­rity Affairs; Life­time Trustee, Tri­lat­eral
Com­mis­sion. (names and bio infor­ma­tion taken from the Tri­lat­eral Com­mis­sion mem­ber­ship list)

As has been the case since the elec­tion of Jimmy Carter in 1976, the Tri­lat­eral Com­mis­sion has dom­i­nated both the Repub­lican and Demo­crat par­ties and their sub­se­quent Admin­is­tra­tions. (See The Tri­lat­eral Com­mis­sion: Usurping Sov­er­eignty).

Economy

The IMF is not to be viewed as a friend to humanity. It is a global elite sumo wrestler that oper­ates a tag team with the World Bank and the Bank for Inter­na­tional Set­tle­ments, in order to pro­mote the poli­cies of globalization.

Inter­est­ingly, the IMF has issued two point­edly bearish reports in the last few days. The first, World Eco­nomic Out­look, was reported in The Tele­graph (UK), IMF sees ‘alarm­ingly high’ risk of fresh global slump:

“The Inter­na­tional Mon­e­tary Fund has slashed its growth fore­cast for large parts of the world economy and warned of a full-blown global slump if pol­i­cy­makers in Europe or the US mis­handle serious threats

The report states that “risks for reces­sion in the advanced economies are alarm­ingly high” and that “the inten­sity of the euro area crisis has not abated as assumed in pre­vious pro­jec­tions.”  

The second IMF state­ment of gloom (Global Finan­cial Sta­bility Report) was scooped by Bloomberg, IMF Sees Euro­pean Banks Facing $4.5 Tril­lion Sell-Off.

“The Inter­na­tional Mon­e­tary Fund said Euro­pean banks may need to sell as much as $4.5 tril­lion in assets through 2013 if policy makers fall short of pledges to stem the fiscal crisis, up 18 per­cent from its April esti­mate. Failure to imple­ment fiscal tight­ening or set up a single super­vi­sory system in the timing agreed could force 58 Euro­pean Union banks from Uni­Credit SpA (UCG) to Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) to shrink assets.

 Shrinking assets by a more proper name is defla­tion, but bankers under­stand that the public reacts very neg­a­tively toward the use of such a word. Infla­tion is a split part­ner­ship of debauchery where banks get rich while investors who play the debt game get rich also. With defla­tion, which cannot be reg­u­lated with Fed policy tools, the down­ward spiral takes back every­thing and more. All those who live on or in the debt tower, get crushed in the end. The Fed’s response to this is to replace bank liq­uidity lost to defla­tion, with freshly cre­ated money. This keeps the banks afloat while everyone else gets crushed… but the Fed can’t keep this game up indef­i­nitely, and I strongly sus­pect that they know this. As gov­ern­ments, munic­i­pal­i­ties, cor­po­ra­tions and indi­vid­uals con­tinue to de-leverage, the spiral is vir­tu­ally guar­an­teed to take the cen­tral banks and their bankster mem­bers, into the same crushing machine.

Another inter­esting view of the global eco­nomic slow­down is seen in the Export Trends for Top FedEx Mar­kets below.

Growth in all mar­kets has slowed since Jan­uary 2010 and four out of nine mar­kets are cur­rently expe­ri­encing out­right contraction.

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Market

“…the market lev­i­ta­tion cur­rently seen is a bubble waiting to be popped. There are no internal indi­ca­tors that are screaming market advance, in fact, just the oppo­site.” — Last week’s F&F

Two ragged trading ses­sions have now brought the major indexes down in a clear five-wave manner, increasing the odds that a sig­nif­i­cant change of trend is at hand. Com­bined with weak­ness in the pre­cious metals and strength in the dollar, the stage could be set for fur­ther losses in the near future.

According to Elliot Wave theory, the end of a five-wave series will nor­mally be fol­lowed by a three-wave cor­rec­tion. Thus, the next day or so could see a bounce that would retrace a por­tion of the recent decline. A bounce is not required, how­ever. If increased selling pres­sure mate­ri­al­izes tomorrow morning, prices could con­tinue down with only minor bounces prior to the next down-leg.

Although gold has not con­firmed a change of trend in a clear manner, silver has done so by com­pleting a small five-wave decline from its October 1 high of $35.47. If this rep­re­sents the first minor wave down, then we should expect a three-wave cor­rec­tion prior to rolling over into a steeper 3rd wave decline.

There is no evi­dence that the “all-the-same-market” dynamic/relationship has been com­pro­mised. In the coming week, pay close atten­tion to any diver­gences between stocks and gold or silver. If gold advances while stocks are down, for instance, it could indi­cate that a rally in stocks is at hand.

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6 Responses to Findings & Forecasts 10/10/2012

  1. Craig Stelck October 11, 2012 at 7:07 am #

    Don’t forget to men­tion Glen Hub­bard one of Bush’s eco­nomic advisor in TARP scandal.

  2. nels hoffman October 11, 2012 at 11:51 am #

    Until the rest of the world rec­og­nizes the US con­sumers pockets ae not end­less –that fewer people with dis­pos­able income;lessof those that do; and the poor who always are poor con­sumers, the slide of 2007 is one con­tin­uous slide. It will not end until the wealthy realize they must share the cake with others –glob­ally. We US voters need not feel spe­cially shafted. It is a global problem>
    NELS HOFFMAN –a TRUE LIFETIME CONSERVATIVE –NOT A rOVE REPUBLICAN.

  3. lifeinthemix October 11, 2012 at 2:41 pm #

    Is it pos­sible to tie the Tri­lat­eral Com­mis­sion to the Order of the Garter?

  4. Ken October 17, 2012 at 2:50 pm #

    I believe that the Tri Lat’s (Repub’s) rep­re­sent the multi­na­tional Corp’s while the Dem’s/Socialists/Liberals/Communists rep­re­sent the masses which are asses (useful idiots) lem­mings to the sea behind the pied piper. I guess I would have to take my chances with the Tri Lat’s. What do you think??/

  5. Ken October 17, 2012 at 2:56 pm #

    Let’s face it, until the masses can agree on what this country was founded on, things will not change. As long as we have a gov­ern­ment that hands out just about every­thing to the unde­serving (Obama Phones, 2 years of unem­ploy­ment e.t.c.) nothing will get better, only worse because those that are not legal will con­tinue to drag down our system. Both par­ties have been respon­sible for this ero­sion over the many years. It all boils down to Power by who.….

  6. jonathan8184 October 20, 2012 at 6:36 am #

    I think it doesn’t matter who or what each party rep­re­sents — because both par­ties ulti­mately at the top are rep­re­senting the same inter­ests and objec­tive. Glob­alism. They might have some dis­agree­ments about how the future is going to look and be run — but they both agree that it needs to happen on the ashes of Western Civ­i­liza­tion and the corpse of Judeo-Christian culture.

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